OK Californians. We will have Jerry Brown as our Governor.
Could it have been a different outcome? I wanted to find some answers.
Here are some statistics for us to digest.
Of all Californians eligible to vote, 73.4% have registered. That’s 17,285,883 registered voters.
Are you one among the non-registered 26.6%?
44.1% of registered voters are Democrats, 31% Republicans, and 20.3% DTS = decline-to-state.
(From secretary of States as of 10/18/2010)
Election Result (LA Times November 03, 2010 – 04:40PM ET)
Brown , Jerry Dem 4,009,280 54%
Whitman , Meg GOP 3,088,070 41%
Nightingale, Chelene AIP 119,046 2%
Ogden , Dale Lib 109,490 1%
Wells , Laura Grn 91,029 1%
Alvarez , Carlos PFP 65,614 1%
Total Votes 7 ,482,529
From the total votes cast for the governor’s office, voter turn out is 43% of registered voters. More than half did not vote. How many of these are conservatives?
Given the fact that registered democrats outnumbers the republicans, and assuming half of the decline-to-state votes go to Brown, and half to Whitman ( total DTS decline-to-state registered voters breakdown provided by secretary of states is 20.3% ), you would expect a sure win for Brown.
44% democrats+10% DTS= 54%, and 31% republicans + 10% DTS=41% for Whitman.
It’s improbable to change that formula if all registered voters showed up at the voting booths. But note that only 43% of voters showed.
Wouldn’t you think that conservatives will have a good chance to upset that formula if 1) they registered to vote if they had not, 2) they showed up voting, more in numbers than the democrats? There is room to play in the 57% no-show group.
Who knows how many conservatives have not registered to vote?
Who knows how many conservative have registered but did not vote?
Perhaps California could have been less blue?
What do you think?